Vaccinations and Economic Stimulus Spur Stronger Second Half Performance For U.S. Hotels

The continued rollout of COVID-19 vaccinations and additional stimulus funds have strengthened the foundation for the recovery of the U.S. lodging industry. According to the February 2021 edition of Hotel Horizons®, CBRE Hotels Research is forecasting an average national occupancy level of 43.0% during the first half of 2021, accelerating to 55.1% in the second half of the year.

"Our current forecast takes into account a national rollout of the COVID vaccines, plus the December COVID Relief Bill, both of which support the projections of improved performance during the second half of the year," said Rachael Rothman, Head of Hotels Research & Data Analytics for CBRE. "Based on our forecasts, the worst of the top-line declines are now behind us. We are beginning to see green shoots of a recovery in air travel data, booking patterns, and revenue per available room (RevPAR)."

"Since we developed our February 2021 forecast, the pace of vaccination distribution has topped 2 million a day, more than we originally foresaw. In addition, the recent $1.9 trillion COVID package should boost lodging demand, while providing hotel owners with much needed financial assistance," said Bram Gallagher Ph.D., Senior Hotel Economist with CBRE Hotels Research. "The combination of these factors solidifies our improved outlook for the second half of 2021 and beyond."

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